Fundamentals Don't Support Current Oil Prices

Business Jet Traveler » August 2008
Friday, August 1, 2008 - 5:00am

"The fundamentals don't support the price of oil," according to Wesley Earl, national sales manager of Tampa, Fla.-based Hiller Group, which distributes Chevron and Texaco fuel to more than 350 FBOs. Factors inflating prices include the dwindling number of refineries, especially for jet-A; geopolitical issues; lack of an effective U.S. energy policy; and the low value of the U.S. dollar, Earl said. He added that commodities speculators are behind what he contends is an "oil bubble," and that the price per barrel, fluctuating now to as much as $140, "should really be in the $60 to $80 range." As prices have climbed this year, fuel sales at FBOs have fallen 10 to 20 percent year-over-year.

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““CEOs go to their vacation homes just after companies report favorable news, and CEOs return to headquarters right before subsequent news is released. More good news is released when CEOs are back at work, and CEOs appear not to leave headquarters at all if a firm has adverse news to disclose. When CEOs are away from the office, stock prices behave quietly with sharply lower volatility. Volatility increases immediately when CEOs return to work.” —David Yermack, a New York University finance professor, whose recently released study shows a correlation between when CEOs take their private jets on vacation and movements in their companies’ stock price ”

-David Yermack