Analyst Predicts Continued Low Demand for Old Aircraft

"Barring a widespread calamity, we fully expect demand to slowly improve for late-model, no-negative airplanes of all sizes," wrote aviation price analyst Fletcher Aldredge in the latest quarterly edition of his Vref newsletter. "However, some segments-older, out-of-production, hopelessly outdated airplanes-are bloated and may never recover." 

Aldredge blamed this partly on lending constraints related to airplanes that are more than 20 years old and said that Challenger 601s, Cessna Citation IIIs, Learjet 35s and 55s, Falcon 50s, GIIIs and Hawker 700s may be "tough sells" for a long time. "These airplanes all represent great buys," he added, "...but operating costs can be staggering." And noted Aldredge, their predecessors-including Challenger 600s, Learjet 24s and 25s, Falcon 10s and 20s, GIIs and Hawker 400s and 600s-remain "mired in the dot-com recession."