Gain Exclusive Insight on the State of the Business Jet Market
Perspective on Business Aviation Trends for Q4 2023
The rapid expansion of the business jet market during the post-COVID recovery period slowed in 2023, although most indicators remained strong in comparison to pre-COVID levels. Business jet flight operations were down year-over-year, inventory levels climbed from an early 2022 low point, supply chain and labor constraints held back new deliveries, and pre-owned transactions slowed from recent high levels. Furthermore, while the economy proved resilient in 2023, many consumers, businesses, and economists remained uncertain about the future. Still, the business jet market had a positive finish to 2023: flight operations were strong, backlogs and lead-times at major OEMs were up, and inventory remained low, leaving the industry well positioned to weather any future economic downturn.
- The global economy remained resilient in 2023 despite headwinds, but uncertainty remains moving into 2024.
- Flight operations declined 1 percent year-over-year in Q4 2023 but were 17 percent above Q4 2019 levels, demonstrating systemic expansion in the user base for business aviation.
- OEM book-to-bill ratios were around 1-to-1 in Q4 with backlogs remaining at high levels, placing OEMs in a position to weather an economic downturn.
- Transactions declined in 2023 due to slower-than-expected new deliveries (attributable to ongoing supply chain and labor issues) and price driven inertia between buyers and sellers in the pre-owned market.
- As more sellers publicly listed their aircraft, business jet inventory levels increased in 2023, although levels for the overall fleet remained below historical averages.
- Most aircraft models reverted to historical depreciation profiles in Q4 2023, albeit from a higher starting point following a firming in values over 2021-22.
The business jet market slowed in 2023 following rapid expansion in 2021 and 2022. In 2023, flight operations and transactions declined while inventory increased, and values softened.
With many economists expecting slow growth in 2024, the business jet market faces some headwinds leading into the new year. Still, flight operations remain above pre-COVID levels as many new users who entered the market in the COVID-19 era continued to utilize business aircraft. In addition, OEM backlogs and lead times remained high and pre-owned inventory was below historical averages. These factors place the business jet market in a strong position to remain resilient during any potential economic disruptions that occur in 2024.